The Logic of “Valley of the Wolves” in Solving the Crises of the Middle East: From Dismantling the Hidden System to Building a New Regional Balance
Mohammad Kourani — 2026.08.21
In a previous article, I argued that the deep state within the failed secular Atatürkist system, following the Iranian Shiite Islamic religious revolution, realized that the secular and Ba’athist regimes were destined to disappear. It therefore produced the television series Valley of the Wolves as a kind of operational roadmap for establishing a modern Islamic state in Turkey—one that could be acceptable to the global financial elites.
If we read Valley of the Wolves analytically, the series presents a relatively comprehensive geopolitical conception of why the crises of the Middle East continue and how the region might escape them.
What is striking is that, in the world of Polat Alemdar, the solution does not begin with changing an Arab government or overthrowing a single regime. Rather, it begins with changing the structure of power that makes the countries of the region vulnerable to external penetration and control.
In one of the later storylines of the series, the conflict becomes a confrontation with the “barons” and global powers, while Gölge seeks to establish a “Greater Babylon” in the Middle East and turn the region into an arena of bloodshed and chaos. This clearly reveals that the series views the Middle Eastern struggle, at its core, as a struggle over who has the right to draw the map of the region and who gets to determine its future. (Kanal D Şi̇ller)
First: The Problem in the Middle East According to the Logic of the Series
The problem can be summarized in five interconnected layers:
1. The weakness of the nation-state
A state becomes incapable of protecting its borders, economy, and political decision-making when multiple centers of power compete within it.
2. Internal conflict
Sectarianism, tribalism, political divisions, corruption, mafias, and parallel economies can become tools that external powers exploit.
3. External intervention
The weaker a state becomes, the easier it is to transform it into an arena for conflicts among major powers.
4. Control over resources and strategic routes
Oil, gas, water, ports, maritime routes, and geographical positions make the region globally strategic.
5. The absence of a regional center capable of producing balance
This is a fundamental point in the philosophy of the series: when the peoples and states of the region are unable to produce an independent regional balance, external powers enter to fill the vacuum.
This interpretation is not far removed from certain geopolitical analyses of the region, which regard strategic routes, energy, and centers of influence as fundamental elements in reshaping the Middle East. (Al-Watan)
Second: The First Solution — Restoring the “State”
Polat Alemdar does not present himself as a revolutionary who wants to destroy the state.
On the contrary, one of the most important meanings embodied by his character is:
The state must regain its capacity to make decisions.
The problem is not the existence of the state itself. The problem is that the state may become penetrated by:
political money;
mafias;
competing security agencies;
foreign interests;
informal economic networks;
elites connected to external powers.
For this reason, Polat’s project in the early stages of the series begins with infiltrating the mafia and dismantling the council of the baron Mehmet Karahanlı. In other words, it begins by cleansing the internal power structure before moving toward the international struggle.
Sources associated with the series describe his original mission as dismantling the organized mafia connected to the Grand Council. (Kurtlar Vadisi)
Therefore:
No independent regional order can be built without strong states.
Third: The Second Solution — Ending the Middle East’s Vulnerability to Being Used as a Tool
Perhaps this is the most important idea that can be extracted from the series.
External powers do not always need to occupy a country directly.
It is enough for them to be able to make:
one faction fight another,
one sect fight another,
one state fight another,
one party fight another,
and one people fight another.
In this way, the region destroys its own power.
The solution, therefore, becomes:
Transforming conflict from an identity-based struggle into a conflict of interests that can be managed politically.
That means:
Religious difference ≠ war
Sectarian difference ≠ partition
Ethnic difference ≠ state disintegration
Political disagreement ≠ civil war
This does not mean eliminating diversity. Rather, it means preventing diversity from being transformed into a geopolitical weapon.
Fourth: The Third Solution — Building a Multi-Centered Regional Power
Here, the vision of Valley of the Wolves can be developed into a broader conception.
The series does not portray a stable Middle East as one in which a single state dominates everyone else. Rather, it suggests that the fundamental problem is the imbalance of power.
Therefore, one could imagine the following equation:
Turkey + Iran + the major Arab states + the Levant + the Gulf states + Egypt
instead of:
Turkey versus Iran,
or Arabs versus Iran,
or Sunnis versus Shiites,
or the Levant versus the Gulf,
or Iran and Turkey versus the Arabs.
In other words, the objective would be to create a regional balance of power that prevents any external force from controlling the region unilaterally.
Fifth: The Fourth Solution — Transforming the Middle East from an Arena of Conflict into a Community of Interests
Here we can move from politics to economics.
Instead of states competing over:
oil;
gas;
ports;
pipelines;
trade routes;
they could create networks of shared interests.
For example:
a regional energy network;
a railway network;
an integrated port network;
a free-trade area;
joint water projects;
agricultural integration;
industrial integration;
a broad regional market.
At that point, destroying one particular state would become costly for the other states.
This is one of the most important ways in which security can be transformed from a purely military concept into mutual economic security.
Sixth: The Fifth Solution — Preventing Secret or Supranational Powers from Becoming a “World Government”
Here we encounter the symbolism of the Barons in the series.
The Baron is not merely a villain. He symbolizes a power that is not subject to popular accountability.
Therefore, the real confrontation faced by Polat is not merely against a particular individual, but against a principle:
“That there should exist an entity capable of determining the fate of peoples without being accountable to them.”
For example, in Episode 278, the meeting of the “Barons” is portrayed as a confrontation with dark global powers, while another storyline connects the “Greater Babylon” project with the reshaping of the Middle East through chaos. (Kanal D Şi̇ller)
From this, an important political principle can be extracted:
Any stable regional system requires transparency, institutions, and accountability, so that the deep state itself does not become a state above the state.
Seventh: What About Israel?
Within the logic of the series, the Middle Eastern crisis cannot be understood without including Israel in the regional security equation.
But the solution that can be extracted from this vision is not necessarily:
permanent war forever.
Rather:
Ending the ability of any single state to impose a regional order unilaterally through force.
The Palestinian issue therefore becomes part of the reconstruction of regional security, rather than a separate issue disconnected from the wider system.
From this perspective, lasting stability requires addressing the roots of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and establishing a regional system that does not allow the Palestinian issue to be used as a justification for domination or chaos.
Eighth: The Map That Can Be Extracted from the Philosophy of “Valley of the Wolves”
If we transform these ideas into a political and economic map, it would approximately look like this:
The First Circle: The Nation-State
Syria — Iraq — Lebanon — Jordan — Palestine — Turkey — Iran — Egypt — the Gulf states.
Each state retains its sovereignty, borders, and institutions.
The Second Circle: Regional Security
Establishing a regional security system that prevents:
civil war + external intervention + terrorism + forced partition + changing borders by force.
The Third Circle: Regional Economy
Connecting:
The Gulf → Iraq → Iran → Turkey → Syria → Lebanon → the Mediterranean
together with:
Egypt → the Red Sea → the Gulf.
Here the region becomes a single interconnected commercial network rather than a collection of competing arenas.
The Fourth Circle: Palestine
Resolving the Palestinian issue as one of the central keys to regional stability.
The Fifth Circle: Relations with Global Powers
Neither complete rupture with:
America — Russia — China — Europe
nor absolute dependence upon them.
Rather:
Multiple external partnerships combined with an independent regional decision-making process.
Ninth: The Final Model
If we want to summarize the “Middle Eastern solution” that can be extracted from the world of Polat Alemdar in one equation:
**Strong state
cohesive society
independent economy
shared regional security
balance among major powers
resolution of the Palestinian issue
preventing external powers from controlling decision-making
preventing secret powers and mafias from penetrating the state
= a more independent and stable Middle East.**
Here, according to the symbolic reading of the series, the real struggle is not:
Polat Alemdar versus a particular Baron.
Rather:
Who possesses the ability to design the regional order?
Will it be designed by the great powers from outside?
Or will it be designed by the peoples and states of the region from within?
This is what makes Valley of the Wolves politically interesting. The series does not portray the Middle East merely as a collection of religious and sectarian wars. Rather, it portrays it as a struggle over sovereignty, resources, strategic routes, political decision-making, and who possesses the right to engineer the region.
In its later storyline, the “Greater Babylon” project becomes an example of an attempt to reshape the region through force and chaos, in contrast with Polat’s project of confronting these forces. (Kanal D Şi̇ller)
The Deeper Conclusion
If we want to express the “map” in a single sentence, it is not necessarily a map of new borders, but rather a new map of power:
A Middle East composed of independent states, economically integrated, strategically balanced, security-cooperative, and engaged in multiple international partnerships, so that no external power, secret network, or single regional state can control the destiny of the entire region.
The Paradox
At the same time, the Iranian Islamic Revolution was founded upon the revolution of the oppressed against modern global colonialism, with the aim of establishing a just and strong state from a divine and Islamic perspective, based on the theory of Wilayat al-Faqih.
It was built upon the religious spirit of Husseini, Ashura, Karbala, and Mahdism, and carried the slogan:
“Neither East nor West, but the Islamic Republic”
as a path toward the genuine Islamic Mahdist state.
Within this worldview, America was regarded as the Great Satan, with whom no compromise could be accepted, while the State of Israel was regarded as an expansionist cancerous growth in the region, against which there could be no complacency.
The majority of the ruling regimes in the region were viewed as imperial and colonial instruments, lacking genuine independent decision-making.
And the principle was clear:
One who does not possess something cannot give it.
Likewise, one who does not possess the virtue of justice and integrity cannot establish a genuinely just government.
This is expressed in the well-known formulation:
“As for the jurist who safeguards himself, preserves his religion, opposes his desires, and obeys the command of his Master, then it is permissible for the common people to follow him.”
Within this worldview, martyrdom and jihad in the path of God and His religion are also understood as sources of divine blessing, capable of frustrating even the greatest conspiracies of the enemy.
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