11. All Civilizations Shall Taste Death… Except the Third Millennium
All civilizations shall taste death, including Western civilization, if we are to believe Paul Valéry’s famous prophecy. The “beginning of the end of modern Western civilization” has already struck, according to his contemporary, the philosopher Michel Onfray.
Onfray says: “These are not signs warning of an upcoming collapse, but rather testimonies of a collapse that has already occurred. It has happened!”
As for the signs of collapse, here are some of them—unordered and not exhaustive:
• Churches being converted to non-spiritual purposes.
• A lack of any desire among Western youth to join the priesthood.
• Weakening faith, abandonment, and liberation from religious beliefs even among believers themselves.
• Treating religion as one pleases, which indicates the disintegration of its foundation.
• Cracked church walls and the collapse of parts of them.
• The decline of moral values and even the emergence of the “post-truth” concept, which signifies the widespread dominance of relativism.
• The inability to form a cohesive society, with fragmentation prevailing, and the dominance of the selfish, arrogant, demanding individual.
• The death of duties that no one values anymore, while rights are claimed by everyone for themselves, their group, or their clan.
• The spread of illiteracy even among those who are supposed to hold degrees and knowledge.
• Vulgarity being celebrated as a form of beauty when exhibited by athletes, actors, singers, or TV presenters.
• Dirty money flaunted as a sign of personal worth.
• Refusal of maturity and “infantilization,” where adults regress to childish behavior.
• The dominance of consumerism, which measures personal value by material possessions.
• Widespread political corruption and immunity of corrupt leaders.
• Public recklessness, the disappearance of courage, and the acceptance of voluntary servitude with open arms.
Michel Onfray adds: “Collapse is an unusual idea—how can Western civilization, which is almost universal, perish?
And he answers: “It is like asking: how does a man who is 100 years old die? Precisely because he has reached that age. Any human being of such age is vulnerable to death at any moment, for he has reached the maximum vitality his species allows.”
Oswald Spengler says: “When I studied all civilizations, I found a common factor—a common denominator for their collapse. What is this factor? It is when women leave their homes, abandon their role as mothers, work, mix with men, and compete with them in fields they were not created for. This is one of the factors that lead to the collapse of civilizations.”
He argues that this happened in Greek, Roman, and Magian civilizations, and it is happening now in Western civilization. He wrote this in the early third of the 20th century—before women’s departure from the home reached the level it has today.
He points out that Roman civilization collapsed when Roman theaters—mixed and extravagant—were at their peak, and he sees this as a clear sign of Western civilization’s impending collapse.
He adds that a nation in which women remain mothers is a nation that naturally renews its youth. Eastern nations like India and China can rejuvenate in any century or stage. Technological weakness can always be compensated for by new generations. But when women leave their homes and compete with men, that nation becomes aged—it will age after two or three generations, inevitably.
The Study of the Rise and Fall of Civilizations:
Some historians and scholars analyze ancient civilizations to identify patterns that could warn us of what is to come.
According to Peter Turchin, an evolutionary anthropologist at the University of Connecticut, there are worrying signs that the West is on a similar path.
Turchin, while studying predator-prey population cycles, realized that the same mathematical models could also apply to the rise and fall of civilizations.
The Two Cycles Turchin Identified:
1. The Secular (Long-Term) Cycle: Lasting two or three centuries, this cycle begins with a relatively equal society. But as the population grows, the supply of labor surpasses demand, wages fall, and a wealthy elite emerges while workers’ living standards decline. Rising inequality then fuels social unrest and eventually leads to collapse.
2. The Shorter Cycle: Lasting about 50 years, consisting of two generations—one living in peace and stability, the other experiencing unrest and instability.
Turchin notes that the United States saw peaks of turmoil around 1870, 1920, and 1970. He predicts that after 2020, the country will face a period of unrest as severe as that of the 1970s, which saw civil rights movements and protests against the Vietnam War.
Environmental and Class Pressures:
According to writer Rachel Nuwer, two main factors threaten Western civilization:
• Environmental pressure, such as the depletion of resources like groundwater, soil, fisheries, and forests, all worsened by climate change.
• Economic inequality, where elites hoard wealth, leaving little or nothing for ordinary people, which will eventually lead to collapse as the working class cannot sustain itself.
Experts’ Predictions:
Jørgen Randers, retired professor of climate strategy at the Norwegian Business School, and author of “2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years”, says:
“The world will fail to tackle the climate problem during this century, simply because solving it is far more expensive than continuing business as usual. Climate problems will worsen because we cannot meet the promises we made in the Paris Agreement and other accords.”
Homer-Dixon, head of global systems at the Balsillie School of International Affairs in Canada and author of “The Upside of Down”, adds:
“Other signs of entering a danger zone include nonlinear global events—sudden, unexpected changes in the world system—like the 2008 economic crisis, the rise of ISIS, Brexit, or Donald Trump’s election victory.”
Europe vs. the U.S.:
The report suggests that Europe will feel the pressure first due to its proximity to Africa and its role as a gateway to the Middle East, not to mention ongoing political unrest in the East. The United States, protected by oceans, may endure a little longer.
Economic Collapse Scenario:
Economists have perfected the art of highlighting the material benefits of modern economic growth—better health, more comfort, greater happiness. But the moral consequences of this growth are rarely addressed, even though this dynamic is a key factor that may pave the way for collapse.
History has shown that every civilization, no matter how great, is vulnerable to weaknesses that could bring about its end.
The Big Question:
Which civilization will rise to replace the current one?
Will it resemble its predecessor or be its opposite?
Will the balance of power shift, or will only the ruling class change?
Will the new civilization have solutions to democratic decay and the crisis of justice?
